By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst
The MLB division series round is here, as we’re down to the final eight teams. From a betting perspective, I have you covered.
I will guide you through these playoffs by giving you daily study materials. That homework consists of previewing each game with some bets I like for the daily slate.
That is the school bell, which can only mean one thing:
Class is back in session!
Here are my favorite bets for Thursday’s Game 2s, with odds via FOX Bet (all times ET).
Seattle Mariners (Luis Castillo) at Houston Astros (Framber Valdez), 3:37 p.m. (TBS)
There is only one pitcher in Major League Baseball whose average launch angle allowed is a negative number (–3.6 degrees).
It’s Framber Valdez.
To translate, that number means when hitters make contact, they’re hitting it into the ground on average. He keeps pitches low with sinkers and curveballs, and the result is often a grounder his infield can take care of. To beat a groundball pitcher, you need an offense that can lift it from the strike zone and into the outfield.
The Mariners may be that ballclub. Their average launch angle on sinkers and curveballs is 16.6 degrees, the second highest in MLB. Their expected batting average is still low on these deliveries (25th in the majors at .204), but the raw numbers suggest they can drive in a few runs. Even with a stellar Houston bullpen, I like Seattle over three runs (+135 at FOX Bet).
Luis Castillo does have an outstanding fastball/sinker combination that could mean the M’s have the lead in the early innings, but this bullpen will continue to have problems with Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve & Co.
After all, their wRC+ in high-leverage situations (times when the game is on the line) is 127, meaning they are 27% better than average at the most crucial points of baseball games.
We haven’t seen a lot of offense this postseason, but I suspect we will in this one. Take the total runs Over 7 (+105). Also, I’m leaning towards Alvarez and Altuve to each have a hit (+110).
PICK: Mariners team total Over 3.5 runs (+135, bet $10 to win $23.50 total)
PICK: Over 7 runs scored combined by both teams (+105, bet $10 to win $20.50 total)
PICK: Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez to each have one or more hits (+110, bet $10 to win $21 total)
Cleveland Guardians (Shane Bieber) at New York Yankees (Nestor Cortes), 7:37 p.m. (TBS)
Missing the strike zone would suggest bad command. But Shane Bieber has earned the benefit of the doubt.
His slider and curveball each have a whiff rate of at least 39%, which is outstanding, given how well hitters make contact in this era of baseball. He doesn’t walk too many batters, allows a .245 expected batting average (which is top 30 in the bigs) and has the fourth-most out-of-zone swings and misses with 271.
This matchup may pose problems for the Yankees. CSW% is a statistic that combines called strikes and whiff rate. It tends to be stable from game to game and season to season. The Yankees are second worst in this statistic at 28.7%. The Bronx Bombers are dangerous offensively, but they can be fooled.
Given these statistics and the simple fact that Nestor Cortes does not give up many hits, thanks to an effective four-seam fastball, how do we bet on this game?
For starters, I like Cleveland to cover the one run (-138). I’m not comfortable betting on any hitting props since these hurlers are so good in their matchups; any contact that drops for a hit may be random. Instead, anything involving going over strikeouts is fair game. The one I like the most is Bieber Over 5.5 strikeouts (+114).
PICK: Guardians to win outright or lose by one run for a push (run line +1, -138, bet $10 to win $17.25 total)
PICK: Shane Bieber Over 5.5 strikeouts (+114, bet $10 to win $21.40 total)
Remember to pace yourself during your studies this postseason because the lessons will keep on coming.
Class dismissed!
Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports.
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