Sunak and Truss in final showdown over Tory leadership

After 10 days of brutal political combat at Westminster, former chancellor Rishi Sunak and foreign secretary Liz Truss will now take their fight to be Britain’s next prime minister to the country. Some Tory MPs fear the worst.

Such has been the acrimony between the candidates in the race to succeed Boris Johnson as Conservative leader and prime minister that Labour has made an “attack ad” relying on their trashing of his government’s record.

Sunak has accused Truss of advocating “socialist” plans to borrow to fund tax cuts; she claims her rival’s tax increases have driven Britain towards recession.

“I had hoped this would be a contest of virtues,” said David Davis, who backed trade minister Penny Mordaunt to be Tory leader.

He hoped the next phase of the contest — Conservative party members will choose their next leader from a shortlist of two agreed by Tory MPs on Wednesday — would be less “murky”. The winner will be announced on September 5.

Mordaunt was eliminated in the fifth and final round of voting by MPs after a relentless campaign against her by rivals, particularly on the issue of transgender people’s rights, fanned by rightwing newspapers.

Simon Case, cabinet secretary, launched a leak inquiry into the release of damaging official papers to the Sunday Times, relating to gender self-identification, from when Mordaunt was equalities minister.

The decision by Conservative MPs to put Sunak and Truss on the final shortlist means both will be vying to be the “change” candidate, even though they were associated with every big decision of Johnson’s government.

Sunak’s team have already identified Truss’s core weaknesses, at least as far as the 150,000 Tory members are concerned. “She’s a former Lib Dem and a Remainer,” said one campaign official.

Other attacks are expected to focus on her qualification for high office. Dominic Cummings, Johnson’s former chief adviser and a Sunak fan, called Truss “the human hand grenade” who “blows up all she touches”.

Truss will focus relentlessly on Sunak’s decisions as chancellor to raise taxes to the highest level for 70 years, suggesting he is responsible for the country’s sluggish economic growth.

That message is likely to be amplified through papers like the Daily Mail and Daily Telegraph, which were loyal to Johnson and blame Sunak for bringing down the prime minister as well as for tax increases.

Johnson’s allies want to stop Sunak at all costs and a briefing war against the former chancellor is expected to escalate through the summer as the contest goes out to Conservative members.

Johnson, in his final appearance at prime minister’s questions in the House of Commons on Wednesday, made a coded attack on Sunak, saying his golden rule was “cut taxes and deregulate whenever you can”.

He added: “I love the Treasury, but remember that if we had always listened to the Treasury, we would not have built the M25 or the Channel Tunnel.” Sunak and Johnson clashed frequently over tax and spending issues.

Both Sunak and Truss plan whirlwind launches to their campaigns to win over Tory activists; the former chancellor’s team expect him to quickly roll out specific plans for tax cuts, once surging inflation has been tamed.

What the Conservative candidates say on policy

rishi sunak

Economy

Denounces ‘fairytale’ economics of his rivals, and promises tax cuts only when inflation is under control. But is expected to make specific pledges on future tax cuts soon to woo Tory party members. Big focus on tax changes to boost business investment.

Brexit

Raised concerns in cabinet about the economic impact of row with Brussels over Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit trading arrangements. Would stick with UK legislation to override the Northern Ireland protocol in Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal, but expected to push for a settlement with the EU.

Levelling up

Pledges to continue Boris Johnson’s agenda on tackling the UK’s regional inequalities, including through the creation of more directly elected mayors. Would have a cabinet minister for levelling up and ensure the Treasury approves infrastructure projects outside southern England.

Net zero

Has made commitment to the UK target of net zero carbon emissions by 2050. But has limits to his green credentials: he has promised to scrap plans to make it easier to build onshore wind farms, saying they cause ‘distress and disruption’.

liz truss

Economy

Claims Sunak’s tax rises have plunged Britain into recession, and would reverse his increase in corporation tax from 19% to 25%. Says her tax cuts costing more than £30bn would boost the economy. Has also criticised Bank of England record on inflation.

Brexit

Architect of the Northern Ireland protocol bill, which would override Johnson’s Brexit deal. Campaigned as the leadership candidate who would stand up to Brussels. Backed by Eurosceptics and distrusted in EU circles, she is unlikely to enable a thaw in relations with Brussels.

Levelling up

Would stick to levelling up ‘but in a Conservative way’, with a greater focus on tax cuts and deregulation instead of infrastructure investment. Would cut red tape to stimulate investment, but also create more directly elected mayors.

Net zero

Promises to keep the net zero target — but has criticised the goal, saying she wants to find ‘better ways to deliver net zero’ that do not ‘harm people and businesses’. Has also promised to suspend green levies that annually add about £150 to each household energy bill.

Speed is of the essence because ballot papers will be sent out to Conservative members in the first week of August; many activists will vote by return of post.

They also have the option of voting online. If they vote twice, only the second one counts, so Tory members can change their minds.

Recent polling of members by YouGov found that Truss would beat Sunak by 53 per cent to 35 per cent, and she is now the bookmakers’ favourite to be the next prime minister.

Key to Sunak’s pitch to members will be his claim that he is best placed to tame inflation and lead the Tories to a fifth successive general election victory, probably in 2024.

Polling by JL Partners this month showed that Sunak was more popular than Sir Keir Starmer, Labour leader, albeit only by one percentage point. Starmer was preferred over Truss by 12 points.

Sunak’s team said the 137 votes he secured from MPs in the ballot on Wednesday — putting him top — was “a really strong result with a clear mandate”.

But it was Truss’s team who appeared most jubilant, high-fiving and hugging each other in the sunshine outside the Commons chamber after the foreign secretary reached the final shortlist with 113 votes.

Truss’s pitch to Tory members is likely to resonate: she was inspired to leave the Lib Dems for the Tories by former prime minister Margaret Thatcher, and has now reinvented herself as a Brexiter ready to stand up to Brussels.

Jonathan Gullis, Conservative MP for Stoke-on-Trent North and a Truss supporter, said the overwhelming majority of his constituency voted Leave and “they want someone who stands up for this country and makes the most of Brexit opportunities”.

The question is whether Tory activists, typically viewed as more rightwing than Conservative voters, will choose the next party leader with their hearts or with their heads given opinion polls suggest Sunak would be more likely to deliver an election win.

In the 2005 Tory leadership contest, Davis was more attuned to the instincts of party members, but activists instead opted for the socially liberal David Cameron as the more likely election winner.

Labour said it was delighted that two senior cabinet ministers in Johnson’s government were on the final shortlist because neither could “escape the blame for the current economic crisis”.

Conor McGinn, a shadow minister, said: “The choice of the next Tory leader is down to two continuity candidates. Both Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak are stooges of the Johnson administration.”

Johnson insisted in his Commons swansong that either Truss or Sunak would “wipe the floor” with Starmer “like some household detergent”.

One of the two will be facing Starmer on September 7, at the next session of prime minister’s questions, and a new phase in UK politics will begin.