Grains rally as Russian missiles hit Poland, raising potential for wider war

U.S. grain futures gained Tuesday following reports that Russian missiles landed across the border with Ukraine into Poland, killing two people, sparking concerns that any potential escalation in the war may endanger the deal that has allowed exports of grains out of Ukraine through the Black Sea.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, corn for December delivery (C_1:COM) closed +1.4% to $6.66 1/4 a bushel, soybeans (S_1:COM) for January delivery settled +1.1% to $14.56 3/4 a bushel, and wheat (W_1:COM) ended +1.1% to $8.27 3/4 a bushel.

ETFs: (NYSEARCA:CORN), (NYSEARCA:SOYB), (NYSEARCA:WEAT), (DBA), (MOO)

Signs of progress in talks to extend the export deal for Ukrainian crops earlier had weighed on grain futures; Bloomberg reported Russia likely will allow the deal to be extended beyond its initial expiration on November 19.

Ukraine has shipped more than 10M tons of crops through the Black Sea corridor since the deal came into force nearly four months ago.

Prices for grains such as soybeans, wheat and corn likely will see double-digit declines going into 2024, underperforming gold and U.S. Treasuries, John Overstreet writes in an analysis newly published on Seeking Alpha.